Aurora Forecast Methodology

How Aurora Norway combines NOAA, Kp, darkness and Norwegian cloud forecasts to estimate where the northern lights are most visible.

Forecast Inputs

Our forecast products combine NOAA OVATION aurora probability, the planetary Kp index, local darkness calculations, and Norwegian cloud forecasts from Yr. We use these inputs to estimate where aurora is active overhead and where it is most likely to be visible right now.

Update Cadence

NOAA aurora and Kp data are refreshed several times per hour. Weather inputs are refreshed on a rolling basis for the highest-probability viewing locations. Static guides are re-reviewed when conditions, travel information, or search demand change.

Visibility Model

We do not treat raw aurora activity as the same thing as visible aurora. The visibility estimate weights geomagnetic activity against darkness and local cloud conditions so that the result is more useful for trip planning and same-night decision-making.

Editorial Safeguards

Automated research may assist topic discovery, but every guide is pushed through fact-checking, minimum-quality checks, internal link validation, and a repeatable publishing build before it goes live.